概略坐标对GPS PWV解算的影响     

邹海波  易雪婷  单九生  喻迎春 《气象》2017,43(12):1547-1553

利用GAMIT 10.6和2016年第101天至第160天南昌站的GPS观测资料,开展了13组概略坐标变化对GPS PWV解算的影响研究试验(南昌站概略坐标设置以10 m等间距从0~120 m逐渐向西偏移真实坐标)。其结果发现:当概略坐标与实际坐标偏离在60 m以内时,概略坐标的变化对GPSPWV的解算影响不大(长基线的相对误差和均方根残差NRMS分别维持在5.7×10~(-9)和0.24附近);但当概略坐标与真实坐标偏离超过60 m后,概略坐标的变化对GPS PWV的解算有着显著的影响,其中基线相对误差和GPS PWV与探空PWV的标准偏差随概略坐标偏离的增加而快速增大,NRMS和GPS PWV与探空PWV的相关系数也有明显的增加和减小,GPSPWV的成功解算日数则随概略坐标偏离的增加而快速减小(当偏离≥120 m时南昌无GPS PWV生成);概略坐标变化对基线相对误差、GPS PWV精度以及GPS PWV能否被成功解算的影响仅限于本站,某站概略坐标的偏离不会对其他站GPS PWV解算造成明显的影响。  相似文献   

江西省新一代中短期预报业务流程介绍     

张瑛  许爱华 《气象与减灾研究》2005,28(1):22-24

按照中国气象局以数值预报产品为基础,以MICAPS预报人机交互系统为工作平台的思路．建立了包括气候背景、预报思路、天气会商、预报制作和管理5个模块的江西省新一代中短期预报业务流程,并重点介绍了数据转换、综合图定义、参数修改、网络改造等有关的本地化工作,以及包括天气形势描述、要素预报的人机交互修改、全省实况描述的预报制作和预报产品自动或半自动生成技术。  相似文献   

Relation between mean stress,thermodynamic, and lithostatic pressure     

Evangelos Moulas  Stefan M. Schmalholz  Yury Podladchikov  Lucie Taj manov  Dimitrios Kostopoulos  Lukas Baumgartner 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2019,37(1):1-14

Pressure is one of the most important parameters to be quantified in geological problems. However, in metamorphic systems the pressure is usually calculated with two different approaches. One pressure calculation is based on petrological phase equilibria and this pressure is often termed thermodynamic pressure. The other calculation is based on continuum mechanics, which provides a mean stress that is commonly used to estimate the thermodynamic pressure. Both thermodynamic pressure calculations can be justified by the accuracy and applicability of the results. Here, we consider systems with low‐differential stress (<1 kbar) and no irreversible volumetric deformation, and refer to them as conventional systems. We investigate the relationship between mean stress and thermodynamic pressure. We discuss the meaning of thermodynamic pressure and its calculation for irreversible processes such as viscous deformation and heat conduction, which exhibit entropy production. Moreover, it is demonstrated that the mean stress for incompressible viscous deformation is essentially equal to the mean stress for the corresponding viscous deformation with elastic compressibility, if the characteristic time of deformation is five times longer than the Maxwell viscoelastic relaxation time that is equal to the ratio of shear viscosity to bulk modulus. For typical lithospheric rocks, this Maxwell time is smaller than c. 10,000 years. Therefore, numerical simulations of long‐term (>10 kyr) geodynamic processes, employing incompressible deformation, provide mean stress values that are close to the mean‐stress value associated with elastic compressibility. Finally, we show that for conventional systems the mean stress is essentially equal to the thermodynamic pressure. However, mean stress and, hence, thermodynamic pressure can be significantly different from the lithostatic pressure.  相似文献   

The Earth's natural pulse electromagnetic fields for earthquake time–frequency characteristics: Insights from the EEMD–WVD method          下载免费PDF全文

Guo‐Cheng Hao  Yu‐Xiao Bai  Hui Liu  Juan Zhao  Zuo‐Xun Zeng 《Island Arc》2018,27(4)

Monitoring the Earth's natural pulse electromagnetic field (ENPEMF) signal is a geomagnetic detection approach for the Earth internal and external studies, and it provides a reference for earthquake prediction. In this paper, the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition–Wigner Ville Distribution (EEMD–WVD) method is used to process the time sequences of the ENPEMF signal detected by GR‐01 receiving devices during the Lushan M_S7.0 earthquake (April 20th, 2013). By obtaining the intrinsic mode function (IMF), the time–frequency–amplitude joint distribution and the energy spectrum of the ENPEMF signal, the suspected anomalies before the earthquake could be shown. The results illustrate the ENPEMF signal before an earthquake and its time–frequency characteristics based on an EEMD–WVD algorithm, proving useful information about the anomalies around the time of the earthquake.  相似文献   

An enhanced ensemble Kalman filter scheme incorporating model error in sequential coupling between flow and geomechanics     

Edison Caballero  Fernando A. Rochinha  Marcio Borges  Marcio A. Murad 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2019,43(2):482-500

In this work, we construct a new methodology for enhancing the predictive accuracy of sequential methods for coupling flow and geomechanics while preserving low computational cost. The new computational approach is developed within the framework of the fixed-stress split algorithm procedure in conjunction with data assimilation based on the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). In this context, we identify the high-fidelity model with the two-way formulation where additional source term appears in the flow equation containing the time derivative of total mean stress. The iterative scheme is then interlaced with data assimilation steps, which also incorporate the modeling error inherent to the EnKF framework. Such a procedure gives rise to an “enhanced one-way formulation,” exhibiting substantial improvement in accuracy compared with the classical one-way method. The governing equations are discretized by mixed finite elements, and numerical simulation of a 2D slab problem between injection and production wells illustrate the tremendous achievement of the method proposed herein.  相似文献   

青藏高原地区城乡虚拟水贸易格局与影响因素     

孙思奥  王晶  戚伟 《地理学报》2020,75(7):1346-1358

青藏高原是亚洲水塔,其水资源与水生态环境保护意义重大。从虚拟水视角,研究青藏高原与外部的水资源贸易关系和影响因素,有助于理解该地区的水资源问题、制定虚拟水贸易策略、优化区域城乡水资源配置、保障亚洲水塔功能。依托2012年中国区域间投入产出表成果,本文测算了青藏高原与中国其他区域之间的虚拟水贸易关系,建立了中国区域城镇与农村地区的虚拟水贸易网络,采用对数平均迪氏指数模型分析了青藏高原对其他区域虚拟水贸易不平衡的影响因素。结果表明,青藏高原向中国其他区域净输出虚拟水2.25亿m³,其中向西南、华北、华中、华东、华南等5个区域净输出虚拟水,从西北和东北2个区域净输入虚拟水。城乡之间虚拟水贸易联系非常紧密,农村地区生产水足迹较高,而城镇地区由于人口密度较高、消费水平较高,是虚拟水最终消费的热点区域,青藏高原农村地区的虚拟水贸易量大于城镇地区的虚拟水贸易量。青藏高原贸易输出结构以农产品为主导,虚拟水净输出12.7亿m³;青藏高原与其他区域贸易存在逆差,贸易量因素导致虚拟水净输入8.6亿m³;用水效率在青藏高原与不同区域虚拟水贸易中的正负效应不一,总体带来青藏高原虚拟水净输入1.8亿m³。未来,应重点通过灌溉节水减少农业水足迹,引导城镇居民向低水足迹生活方式转变,鼓励内地为青藏高原提供物质与技术支援,实行水资源生态补偿政策,以保护青藏高原水资源,促进区域水资源可持续利用。  相似文献   

Relationship of Ecological Well-being Performance and Sustainable Economic Development in Liaoning Province     

ZHANG Hua  YU Miao  SUN Cuiyang  LIU Jiangang 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2019,10(1):39-47

Liaoning Province is in a critical period of economic transformation. The rational utilization of ecological resources and the balance of the relationship between the resource environment and economic growth have become the key factors affecting its sustainable economic development. This paper uses data from the Human Development Index and an ecological footprint to construct the ecological well-being performance of Liaoning Province from 2006 to 2016. It then examines the relationship of ecological well-being performance with economic growth, considers the factors influencing the well-being level effect, and analyzes the trends for sustainable economic development from the perspective of ecological well-being. There is a horizontal comparison of the current situation of ecological well-being performance in Liaoning Province and with other coastal provinces in China and clarification of the stage and development gap. The conclusions show that: 1) The trend of ecological well-being performance in Liaoning Province during this period first decreased and then rose, with this movement mainly affected by changes in the ecological footprint; 2) There is a U-shaped relationship between ecological well-being performance and economic growth, and resource consumption contributes less to promote well-being; 3) There are three stages to the sustainable development trend: inferior, medium and advanced. When compared with others coastal provinces, Liaoning Province belongs to the high consumption and low well-being type.  相似文献   

1981-2017年西藏“一江两河”流域5cm地温及其界限温度时空变化特征   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

杜军  胡军  尼玛吉  次旺顿珠 《地理学报》2019,74(9):1821-1834

利用西藏“一江两河”流域9个气象站点1981-2017年逐日5 cm地温资料,采用线性回归、Mann-Kendall非参数检验等方法,分析了该流域5 cm地温及其界限温度的时空分布、突变特征,并探讨了地温变化率与经纬度、海拔高度之间的关系。结果表明：“一江两河”流域年、季平均5 cm地温总体呈自西向东递增分布,并随海拔升高而降低。1981-2017年流域月平均5 cm地温均呈显著升高趋势,升温率为0.23~0.98 ℃/10a,以4月最大,7月最小。年平均5 cm地温以0.58 ℃/10a的速率显著升高,各季地温也都趋于上升,其中春季升温率最大,夏季最小。5 cm地温≥ 12 ℃表现为初日提早、终日推迟、持续日数延长、积温增加的年际变化趋势。同样,≥ 14 ℃界限温度也有类似的变化,但变幅比≥ 12 ℃的要大。在10年际变化尺度上,流域年、季平均5 cm地温表现为逐年代际升高的变化特征。5 cm地温≥ 12 ℃和≥ 14 ℃界限温度在21世纪前10年呈初日提早、持续日数延长和积温偏多的态势。M-K检验显示,除夏季外,其他三季平均5 cm地温均发生了气候突变,其中春季和秋季的突变点分别出现在2004年和2005年,而冬季发生在1997年;年平均5 cm地温在2003年出现了突变。5 cm地温≥ 12 ℃初日的突变点在2004年,终日发生突变时间较晚,为2014年;持续日数突变点较早,在1997年;积温在2005年发生了突变。而5 cm地温≥ 14 ℃界限温度的突变点发生在2004年前后。相对于气温的变化,5 cm地温的升温幅度更大,突变时间较晚。  相似文献   

Raingauge network optimization in a tropical urban area by coupling cross-validation with the geostatistical technique     

Mohd Zaharifudin Muhamad Ali 《水文科学杂志》2018,63(3):474-491

An adequate and reliable raingauge network is essential for observing rainfall data in hydrology and water resource applications. A raingauge network developed for a catchment area is commonly extended periodically to increase data accuracy. Due to financial constraints, the network is reviewed for the optimal number of stations. A new optimization approach is developed in this study by coupling a cross-validation technique with a geostatistical method for raingauge network optimization to prioritize raingauge stations. The spatial interpolation error of the spatial rainfall distribution, measured as the root mean square error (E_rms) optimization criterion is applied to a raingauge network in a tropical urban area. The results indicate that this method can successfully optimize the number of rainfall stations in an existing raingauge network, as the stations are prioritized based on their importance in the network.  相似文献   

上海沿岸海域灾害性大风特征研究与预报检验     

蔡晓杰  王琴  朱智慧  沈其艳 《海洋预报》2020,37(2):46-53

选取2011-2017年上海沿岸海域5个浮标站点的风场和海浪数据,分析了大风过程的时间和空间特征;对海浪成长过程进行风向分类,运用滑动相关分析统计了8个风向的海浪滞后时间;计算了大风起风时间的预报提前和滞后量,进行了风速风向的误差和准确率检验。结果表明:越往东部海域,大风时数越多,长江口区东部风速较大;大风极值主要出现在8月份台风过程,出现时段都为傍晚到半夜,大浪极值浪向以东北到东南向为主;秋冬季大风时数多,5-6月大风时数最少;大风风向以西北到东北风为主;海浪成长过程风向分布是东南-西北走向,海浪对风的响应滞后时间平均为3~4 h;大风起风时间预报较实况略有滞后,风速预报的准确率总体在70%以上,预报值较实况值偏小,口外浮标偏小最为明显,偏强率都为0;风向预报准确率低,误差大。  相似文献